Trading Tips for Farmers By JC Hoyt

JC Hoyt is Managing Partner at GoGrain LLC, a Discount Commodity Futures Trading Online firm specializing in helping farmers find their best cash prices and managing risk in commodity markets in real time mark-to-the-market programming. He is a 20-year veteran of the grain markets, working with producers for agribusinesses Harvest States, Pioneer, and Koch Industries.

 






Sluggish Week in Grains  

Equity and commodity markets started the week off strong, but turned bearish as poor economic data and concerns about some of the European Union members’ solvency came to light.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 55.10 for the week after shedding 268.37 points Thursday to close at 10,012.23.  Oil is down $3.19 to finish at $71.73, while gold was down sharply to post a $43.90 loss this week.  As a result of the EU’s monetary issues, the dollar index has soared making U.S. grain less appealing to the rest of the world.

            The corn market had choppy trading and trimmed 3 ½ cents off the nearby March contract to close at $3.51 ½ on Friday.  The latest reports from South America revised the projected harvest upwards keeping the pressure to the downside for U.S. produced grains in the near future.  Export demand was 923,900 MT, which was at the lower end of expectations.

            Soybeans are down ¼ cent on the week to end trade Friday at $9.13 ½ after up and down trading.  The South American estimated harvest was increased for soybeans as well and many traders believe that China will start to shift demand to Brazil and Argentina soon.  Exports were very weak for soybeans this week totaling only 381,500 MT, which was well below analysts’ projections.

            Wheat experienced a slight rally this week after hitting fresh four-month lows mid-week.  For the week, wheat has advanced 1 ½ cents to finish Friday at $4.73 ¼.  Ending stocks are at a 22-year high and the dollar index was up sharply leading to exports of only 418,200 MT this week. 

            The USDA will publish its estimates of the South American crop on Tuesday.  Informa revised its estimates to the upside earlier this week keeping downward pressure on the U.S. grain markets.  Export demand has been hurt recently by the increasing value of the dollar, which has hit new highs since the lows in July.  Keep a close watch on the EU’s solvency issues as it may have a profound affect on the dollar index.