Trading Tips for Farmers By JC Hoyt

JC Hoyt is Managing Partner at GoGrain LLC, a Discount Commodity Futures Trading Online firm specializing in helping farmers find their best cash prices and managing risk in commodity markets in real time mark-to-the-market programming. He is a 20-year veteran of the grain markets, working with producers for agribusinesses Harvest States, Pioneer, and Koch Industries.

 






 

The major equity and grain markets are on diverging paths this week.  The stock market climbed higher while the grain markets slid lower.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 240.94 points to settle at 10,566.20 at the close Friday.  Tagging along was oil and gold, adding $2.30 and $14.30 respectively, finishing trade at $81.73 and $1,132.60 today.  Surprisingly, the dollar index followed suit ending trade Friday up slightly on the week.  The grain markets were a different story, however.

            Corn was a loser on 4 out of 5 days thus far, ending Friday down 13 ½ cents for the week at $3.75 ½ on the May contract.  Thoughts of planting delays in the Midwest have started to emerge in the corn pit, providing support to prices in the short-term.  However, slow exports have kept a ceiling on prices.  Exports were reported of 1,055,300 MT which is down 15 percent from the previous week, but up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Next Wednesday’s USDA Supply and Demand report will give traders an indication of the direction of the market for the months to come.

            Soybeans started the week off strong, but all of the gains were wiped out with trading activity Thursday.  All in all, soybeans are off 18 ¼ cents to finish at a three-week low of $9.42 ¾ on the May contract.  Continued strong yield reports from South America and little buying interest from China has opened the door for prices to tumble lower.  Exports were 1,097,600 MT which is down 2 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Net sales were even worse at 182,400 MT--a marketing-year low.

            Wheat lacks fundamental support and consequently has followed corn and soybeans lower.  The May CBOT contract is down 25 ¾ cents for the week to finish trade Friday at $4.93 ½.  Large world supplies and relatively expensive U.S. wheat resulted in dismal net sales of 101,600 MT, which is down 73 percent from the previous week and 77 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The pressure is to the down side for U.S. wheat for the coming months.

            With little news for the markets to absorb, traders and producers are looking for the upcoming USDA report to perhaps provide a spark in the commodity markets.  The equity markets have remained in a tight range for most of the year, while weathering some poor economic data.  Next week should provide a better glimpse into the direction of the market for the weeks to come.